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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  April 9, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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and the imf payback. the international monetary fund has no agreement with creditors inside. federal confusion shows it later this year. are you confused? i am confused. the futures will stay a little bit higher. for europe, let's go straight to the open. >> looking a little rosie and willie -- and we are seeing these china stocks higher and record amounts of money being put in. look at europe up and france by .3%. a little bit of optimism.
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we are looking at the federal reserve minutes and there is a split. in europe, it is all about greece. the clock is ticking. they have keenly awaited salaries and will they extend the emergency liquidity they provided to the banks? the euro-dollar is flat and we await what happened with greece. we expect the decision today.
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this is the 73rd month we will see record borrowing rates. cameron has come out as a prime minister with no rate change under that tenure. the pound is flat and looking at the bond market the same borrowing costs back in those days. >> that was showing the level of stress. many feel that, come june, we will get a deal struck. interesting comments coming earlier.
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let's look at the stocks on the move. a bit of a difficult reading. this is some tests. it is actually a higher up. it is starting to show some consistency and improvement. >> the positive update is above where they previously thought. they got the chief executive and the creative director starting to show some moves. it is down by a percent. there was news headlines and one
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they thought would be snapped up. corrugated packaging, not all that sexy. it could be after raising 4.5%. it is rising on the back of speculation. >> up by 27 points. some breaking news in the last couple of minutes. we paid 450 euros. another month. marches joins us with more from athens. marches, greece made the payment. the question is, what is next?
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we have a busy time for repayments. >> yeah. the payments have a lot of? . in the end, it was a formality. the default on the imf and this is something that there have been some ministers in the past and is not there. there is the pension at the end of the month and they have to pay 1.5 million. march was a really tough month and it depleted the resources of
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the government meaning things are tough. >> things are pretty tough. the prime minister is continuing his trip. >> you are very much in the long term. it is pretty oppressing. on the other hand, there are lots of variables that support this. just because we are a country that is broke it does not mean we throw out the sovereignty of the policy and greece is a country that has cultural and economic ties with russia.
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russia, because of this is the you'd in a fair vulnerable light -- is viewed in a favorable light. definitely mixed feelings on the one hand and it is good the prime minister is not surrendering. others say that is good and well and we have more pressing economic issues. jon: fantastic to get your insight. that is the latest. let's get to the opinion on the matter. here is a quote. rarely has a new government caused so much economic damage. the story is "greece you are getting it wrong. we are joined by the head of investments.
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they are getting it wrong and you are not impressed. >> the threat is in the middle of a small recovery and confidence. greece is in recession and all of the talk about the primary surpluses. there is not going to be any growth. >> i will bring you back. there is a clear the virgin's. there is the crazy man in the room. isn't he the sensible one? he says, this is not sustainable.
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we can do something about it. >> is making a good point. what are we looking to do? what does greece want? we do not have a plan on what they want to achieve. there is a denial and we want to know why greece has a plan. jon: what do you want to see question mark >> no more austerity and no more of the reforms for the last several years. the troika wants greece to do more and more structural reforms. there are possible compromises. the good one is less austerity and more structural reforms. the other is the bad one, more austerity. it looks like the greeks are going for the bad one.
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they want to increase the minimum wage. jon: we come under fire without changing was -- without changing much. no reaction here. are you expecting a kind of reaction? >> there is little reaction. there is qe happening in europe. there is a sense of risk. at this time, it has not doubled the market. >> you pay the euros. for most countries, most would deal with that and we question the ability to do that. we have other big redemptions coming.
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what on earth are they going to do? >> greece needs another bailout. covering the next couple of years and attaching a tough condition to prevent moral hazard. that is the real problem we have. all the debates we are going through are not doing anything to improve the economy. what they need to do is a quick deal with the troika and stop the negotiations so we do not have the problem we were talking about. there is a big risk they may do the exit we have been fearing. jon: grexit is the buzzword. coming up we talk federal confusion. not even the u.s. central bank knows when rates will change.
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we will look at the chinese us stocks frenzy and the returns over the years. too much, too fast. it may be 1950 for david cameron. stay with us. ♪
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>> welcome back. let's get you caught up with the markets. the equity benchmark is back through an all-time high in march with where we are. we have been watching chinese markets. you missed on a rally. overnight, of course, you have the basis points. there is the schedule payment. look at this. this is not over now. it is a great that no one seems to know. there is a summertime height and
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others say the end of the year. are they confused? i read the minutes yesterday and i was confused. >> i think the fed is the devil we know and they're looking at the inflation number, which is key. there have been benefits to what they are doing. to come back to the point, they will raise rates to say they are not boxed. we have the efforts and there is the dis-inflationary. if you get more cash aside you
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have the low growth. >> they are looking at oil and things like the dollar. yesterday, you have the fed watching the markets and the markets watching the fed. what breaks it? >> you look at the broader story and it is a moderate but stable one. it is unemployment. it is reasonably well in terms
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of communication. now, they have told us the rate hike would come and it is a question of economic surprises that could stop them from june july or september. we will raise between june or july. probably in july. the risk is growing with the data's. look at the broader picture and the fed is doing a good job. they cannot predict the weather in the u.s. every week. jon: do you play the weather card question mark >> i will come back to what he is saying. the reason it is not regulated is because the market is watching the fed and that is what we have to do. we have to watch and react. the reason it is happening is
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because it is longer than they are expecting. people thought about three months and five years down the line. the fed watches the market as much as the market watches the fed. jon: what do you have? >> september. >> a pause and gradually. >> thank you for joining us. if you bought into the shanghai composite a year ago, you made a 19% return. anything wrong with that? bubbles maybe? we will discuss after the break. ♪
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jon: welcome back. have to talk about the equity market rally in china. it has spilled over into hong kong. the shanghai composite is up. more and more traders pour into the market. a newly opened asia trading account. i want to bring in the final
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thoughts. what mia investing in? would you call it that question mark >> the mentality is coming. it was loud. the mutual funds invest in shares in hong kong. the reason is very clear and this is part of a bigger deal. the cross-market settlement is internationally. it is a plan and you have to be careful of valuation. there is a discount between the stocks in the asian market and hong kong. the 30% premium to the hong kong is the same share. that is the rally.
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that is the stock of the hong kong exchange. it was up almost 20%. jon: the quota is maxed out. the hang seng has 87 .2, the highest since october 1993. too far too fast? >> it is far. i would not say it would not continue. even with this, the volume is 250 billion, still below the shanghai market. it is going to be very very well. jon: margin that is jumping. do you want to buy into that?
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you have to stomach volatility. >> i'm happy the market is going up. everything is solely on with that. that would play in the single stuff. jon: you prefer india. the measures -- >> the measures we are getting are constructive and they are setting rates. you saw the deposit rates and the whole story is very much developing. >> you are looking at the kids speculating. how much upside is left? >> we have fundamental
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structural change in gdp growth targets. that has gone well and there is a rule change that is difficult in the parliament. it brings more gdp growth. you have to be more patient about it. jon: outside of india? >> looking at it again, you have to be over in japan and europe and you have seen them vacillating between q and noe qe. you have to be along the market. jon: thank you very much for joining us. still to come, we will talk the risk and how worried investors should be. manus will put the question to him.
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an all-time high. of about .5%. the three year note yield is up. greece pays back the imf on time.
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jon: good morning and welcome back to "on the move. here is a picture of the markets. the ftse 100 pushing higher and gains across europe, the dax pushing higher by almost 60 points. on the bottom of the screen, the stoxx 600 equity benchmark at an all-time high. let's take a look. caroline: i am looking at one of the smaller stocks at the moment but what a mega move.
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u.k. oil and gas investments. look at these numbers. up 70% already. move over nonstate oil here comes gatwic of all places. they say no less than 158 million barrels per square mile is currently in place. that is 50 billion to 100 billion barrels per day. usually you get 3% to 50% from the ground but that would make it equivalent to the north sea oil. it could be a world-class potential resource no wonder the shares are spiking. burberry is up almost 4.5%. the reason behind this, is it a with of m&a speculation you --
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speculation? also some other positive numbers, a trading update saying that things are looking more positive and maybe that is spilling over into burberry as well. let's have a look at hansen, this is the biggest maker of -- they said the dollar is helping when you're translating it back into euro. this is the standout mover, just a small u.k. stock. jonathan: let's get out to paris. the conference is underway in the french capital and the greek finance minister is due to speak in a couple hours. manus cranny is sunning himself and joins us now with the guests.
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manus: thank you very much, we are in the gardens, just in front of the chateau, or we understand that the finance ministers did have breakfast. in the meantime i want to talk about imf. joining me now is the former fsa chairman, great to have you with us mr. turner. everybody is hunting, but you are here with a subject which is egalite fragilite, liberte. in terms of equality how would you say the creditors are treating the greeks? guest: the crucial problem to understand about europe and the world is through a set of policy mistakes we have too much debt in the system. in some cases that debt erodes in the public sector.
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greece in retrospect should not have been allowed in to the eurozone with the level of debt that it had. in other countries the debt started entirely on the private sector, spain and ireland because of things the private banking system did creatively lending money to real estate developers and residential households and then it ended up in the state on the public side because of the recession. overall across europe and the world we have a problem of an accumulation of debt which we cannot get out of by the normal processes by saying it will all be repaid. there will have to be more radical ways of dealing with the debt mounted and in some cases, that will involve restructuring debt. we have to accept that greece is not going to repay the totality of its debt and there has to be
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a reality about that. manus: part of what your group discusses is the new generation of economists that need to think differently and act different way. we are steeped in tradition with franco-german alliance. you have a debt and you will play, we are frugal, so should you be. guest: the difficulty one has with engaging in the german point of view, is i think they are very right on one thing but mistaken on another. they are absolutely right to say that before the crisis we were not nearly focused enough on the buildup of debt in the public sector and the private sector for the future we need far more effective mechanisms of controlling the increase of debt than we had in the past. that doesn't mean that once you have accumulated a load of debt
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you can simply say that everybody has to pay back every penny because having accumulated too much debt if you try to get all the private sector debt and public sector debt to be repaid you will simply drive economies into a recession. one has to distinguish between a right focus on not building too much debt in the first place but one then has to be realistic once you have too much debt. manus: today is a substantial day for us at bloomberg we will be discussing the u.k., you are a former regulator and banker. you have true international experience. we are debating the issue which is britain's role within the eu. on a scale of risk how do you think people look at the risk of the u.k. leaving. some are not really that interested.
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guest: i think there is an increasing point of view in many areas of europe that this debate has gone on for so long that it needs a resolution. i don't think we should assume that the germans in particular will be so determined to keep us in that they will renegotiate everything. i think there may be value in a referendum. when you get to the stage where the issue has gone on so long that we need it put on the table and we need to debate and decide, i think the difficulty for the present government is that they assert we will have a significant renegotiation of the treaties, but it is not clear to me that the germans and french are willing to accept a renegotiation. i think we are in a situation where maybe it is a 40% chance that the u.k. will leave the
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european union. i think at some stage we may well have a referendum, but even if we don't have one now the debate will come back later and of the current situation i think we would vote to stay in but i am not sure. manus: the tories are salivating with policies. this is what i want to get a sense from you about. one of the big debates over the weekend was about rebuilding the 1980's, bringing back the housing styles, housing for everybody, $500,000 first time buyers. you have written a great deal about bank credit and social issues. going to the 1980's does that create egalitarian? going back to 1980's style housing? guest: there can be a merit where lots of people are owner-occupiers. if that is what we want to do
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and reverse the decline of owner-occupation, the one thing to be careful is lots of mortgage credit. here is the irony. what we now know is that in the early stages, that is probably good for an increase in owner occupation. beyond a certain level, the easier it is to get credit, the worse it is for owner-occupation. what we now understand is from the late 1990's onward, we had such easy supplies of mortgage credit that it was driving up the price of houses relative to earnings making it difficult for people who did not have deposits and actually getting a major opportunity for what has grown dramatically. we needed debate between tenancy and owner occupation but any
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idea of how we get more owner occupation is making it easier for people to borrow money, is just a mistake. manus: icon up with robert johnson who is the president of inet and i said you will get near to the finance minister from grace today and i and a is due for their bill to be paid how would you advise, when you have a quiet moment with varoufakis later on? guest: the crucial thing is he has to respect their position he has to respect their concern about the way that one person restructuring would create a precedent for others, but they also have to respect his point of view. there is a problem that if you look at the sheer scale of budget surplus which greece
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would have to run year after year in order to pay back the debt in full i don't think that is credible. it was always expected within the people involved with the base about financial regulation in the european economy that the private sector involvement would be followed at some stage by entering official sector involvement. some say we have already done it , we made the terms of debt less reduced the interest rate and extended the terms, but my healing has always been there will be a further step. -- feeling has always been there will be a further step. manus: i enjoyed last night at the center, thank you very much. johnny, that is it from a very beautiful spot. it hasn't all been easy. evening sunshine in paris, great conversations. jon: you enjoy yourself sunning
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yourself in paris. he complains about the gigs he gets, not today. coming up, what postwar record is david cameron about to break. it involves central banks. ♪
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jon: welcome back i am jonathan
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ferro. let's talk about my favorite subject thomas central banks. the bank of england decides on interest rates today. prime minister david cameron on -- cameron is on track for to break a record, the first leader to serve with no change in borrowing costs. joining us now is jennifer and ben. this becomes quite a boring central-bank decision, how important is the election down the road? jennifer: the main thing to them is the uncertainty about business investments. in the thing is all elections create uncertainty, but with this particular election with no clear winner and no clear majority, you don't know how the coalition will turn out and you don't know what kind of business manager in will get or what kind of economic policies.
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until the hurdle is passed keep things as they are. jon: you go back to 1950, the lesson we had a full term minister without a hike. if you were to read into the economy that is one way to read and. jennifer: it speaks to what the promised or was doing at that point the whole host of other global issues. we are dealing with the fallout from the financial crisis. in europe there buying government bonds to keep inflation from sinking in and getting hold. jon: the bank of england seems to be concerned about what is going on in greece. a lot of people might be confused as to why.
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ben: they're worried about uncertainty. back in 2011, the bank was quite clear on how the shocks would resonate through the system if we supported it. there's direct exposure to u.k. banks and other banks that were directly affected. those banks pulled back in the worry is now much more in terms of shocks throughout the market and unpredictable tail risks because of lower market liquidity which the bank seems to have observed. jon: in essence, 2011 contingency plans are somewhat redundant, one output default risk for greece in a stress test ? ben: there are two reasons, the first is timing. the stress test results come out
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at the end of this year and that is quite a long time for greece to hold on to keep those results relevant. if the risk is something bad happens before then and the stress test would look redundant before they come out. secondly it is not really imaginative enough for the bank of england. they want to test the bank on a lot of different fronts. we have been living with the greek threat of default for years and they want to try something new. they are trying a chinese slowdown and an oil price collapse. it is not really exciting enough. jon: let's talk about monetary policy. george osborne talking about the risk that greece poses to the economy, does it really matter? jennifer: it does because if you think about what ben is talking about, these will all have knocked affects the central economy. it matters very deeply to the
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u.k. what happens in that sense. ben's point, what happens to prepare for these chocks, if banks were in a better position than they were before the financial crisis, in that sense we can say the real economy is better protected. jon: where are we with interest rates, everyone concerned with what the bank of england would do, they will hide, they probably won't. the people you are talking to what is the situation. jennifer: there are certainly still some things in view but for many it is the early part of the year. the bank is going to look for an improvement in pay and wages, we are starting to see that now wages outpacing inflation for the first time in years, but until we really see that get entrenched and we see that recovery there is a reason to keep rates where they are. jon: thank you for joining us. as we had to the break, i want to remind you to stay tuned to
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bloomberg because this morning we will host the first of three special debates. guy johnson will moderate a panel on the u.k. relationship with europe and we will have more on that panel in two minutes. ♪
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jon: welcome back to "on the move to her cope almost an hour into -- "on the move."
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a weaker euro story, we are off by one third of 1%. you can see the move in greek government bond yields. the overall yield has some volatility to come. greece may well have paid the imf but on april 14 they have a rollout with 1.4 billion euros of treasury bills and april 17 they have to roll out one billion and on the 20 4th avenue a meeting with their creditors and we know how those usually go. we are less than a month away from the election and bloomberg politics will host the first of three special debates. first we will tackle --
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guy johnson, you can be a busy man this morning. guy: it could be a very interesting debate. where does the u.k. relationship with europe ultimately lie? the general public seem to have swung a little bit. we used to have a majority who said they wanted to leave and now only 35% would like that to happen. the referendum could become a fact after this election and it is a key debate for business and we will find out where the truth ultimately lie. jon: going forward at the moment it is plain out domestically, but in the future the rest of it starts to come to life. guy: the interesting thing taking us back to greece is what is the focus? the grexit or the brexit? which represents more of a clear and present danger to their country? u.k. has a massive economy and it will only get bigger.
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greece has a small economy that seems to be getting smaller. which is the bigger debate? the greek story has the euro and that is a critical factor. we have a great panel lined up. the chairman of ba systems. joining us from businessman the europe, john mills and norman lamont. he rumors what it is like to lead. jon: the grexit-brexit situation, the grexit situation is clearly the one to deal with now, but the big one for the eurozone is the brexit question. it will get bigger and bigger for the eurozone and the european union. how worried are they? guy: they are worried, but what is interesting about business is that business wants reform. business does not want the state's quote as it is now.
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-- the status quo as it does now. they want reform of the eu and sooner rather than later. they are on board with the idea that david cameron wants to generate some kind of reform process for the british business to have an easier time of it. whether or not that will be enough, we will wait and see. if david cameron came back with a deal, would that be enough to satisfy business and the general public? the polling projects on both counts, yes, but the details are important. jon: looking forward to the debate that will, up later. as we had to the break, european equity markets marching higher the euro marching lower. the dax up .25%, up 27 points. the stock 600 at an all-time high.
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will they stay on hold for the 73rd month? most people say yes. if you wanted continue the conversation i am on twitter. ♪
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anna: saving face. these meets the deadline and pays its built of the imf. we will look at how much money the government has left. a french economist says the main cost of a british exit from europe would be to the u.k. british leaders will debate this topic later this morning. emerging markets on a tear. as stocks head for the longest winning streak in a year, we speak to legendary investor mark mobius.